AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

October 19, 2017

Corn futures settled the Thursday session with most contracts fractionally to 2 3/4 cents higher. The USDA reported 1.255 MMT of 17/18 corn sold for export during the week of October 12, exceeding most trade expectations. That was down 21.23% from last week but 43.67% larger than the same week in 2016. Mexico purchased 510,100 MT, with 233,800 MT bought for Japan. There was another 15,000 MT sold for 18/19 delivery. Weekly shipments dropped 50% from last week and 72.93% from a year ago at 339,252 MT. Informa updated their 2018 US acreage estimates to 90.46 million acres for corn, down 1.42 million acres from their September estimate. China sold 782,089 MT of the 1.116 MMT offered at an auction of state reserves on Thursday.

Dec 17 Corn closed at $3.49, up 1/2 cent,

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.62 3/4, up 1/2 cent,

May 18 Corn closed at $3.71 1/4, up 1/2 cent

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.78 1/4, up 1/2 cent

Soybeans

October 19, 2017

Soybean futures finished Thursday with gains of 2 to 4 cents in most contracts. December meal was down 40 cents/ton, with nearby bean oil 42 points higher. In addition to the weekly Export Sales report, the USDA announced a private export sale of 384,000 MT of 17/18 soybeans to China through their daily system. Soybean 17/18 export sales for the week ending 10/12 fell just shy of expectations at 1.275 MMT. That was down 10% from the same a year ago and lagging last week by 27%. China purchased the majority of the sales, at 1.175 MMT, with 523,000 MT switched from unknown destinations. Weekly exports hit 1.85 MMT (68 million bushels), a MY high and 18.7% larger than last year. Soy meal sales came in at 296,015 MT for 17/18, with soy oil at 27,444 MT. Analysts with Informa increased their 2018 US soybean acreage estimate 1.29 million acres from last month to an expected record 90.347 million acres.

Nov 17 Soybeans closed at $9.86 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $9.97, up 2 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $10.07, up 2 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $10.24, up 2 1/2 cents,

Dec 17 Soybean Meal closed at $321.40, down $0.40,

Dec 17 Soybean Oil closed at $33.83, up $0.42

Wheat

October 19, 2017

Wheat futures saw most contracts steady to 3 cents higher in most CBT and KC contracts, as MPLS was up 2 to 5 3/4 cents. US all wheat export sales rose sharply in the week ending October 12 as 615,432 MT of sales were reported, surpassing analysts’ projections. That was nearly 3.5 times larger than the previous week and 19.8% above the same week in 2016.Mexico bought 180,000MT, with China buying 120,000 MT. The USDA also reported shipments of 315,031 MT, slightly lower than last week and lagging last year by 31.74%. Japan’s MOA purchased 64,658 MT of US wheat in their weekly tender, with a total of 123,736 MT bought from the US, Canada and Australia. Egypt’s GASC purchased 230,000 MT of wheat, with all cargos of Russian origin.

Dec 17 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.32 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents,

Dec 17 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.29 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

Dec 17 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.15 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents

Cattle

October 19, 2017

Live cattle futures ended the Thursday session mixed, as nearby Oct was down 27.5 cents. Feeder cattle futures were 62.5 cents to $1.20 higher. The CME feeder cattle index was 18 cents lower at $155.08 on October 18. Wholesale beef prices showed sharp gains in this afternoon’s report. Choice was up $2.31 at $199.57, with select boxes $1.67 higher at $190.76. Week to date FI cattle slaughter is estimated at 462,000 head, about 7,000 fewer than the previous week but 8,000 head larger than the same week last year. Cash trade has been reported at $110 so far this week. The USDA Cattle on Feed report will be released on Friday afternoon, with analysts on average thinking October 1 on feed numbers will be 4.6% larger than last year. The USDA reported export sales of 13,570 MT for the week ending October 12, larger wk/wk but down 15.2% from last year. Exports of beef were up 17.06% from last year at 15,938 MT.

Oct 17 Cattle closed at $111.200, down $0.275,

Dec 17 Cattle closed at $116.150, down $0.500,

Feb 18 Cattle closed at $120.650, up $0.100,

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $153.150, up $0.625

Nov 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $152.775, up $0.700

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $151.200, up $1.075

Lean Hogs

October 19, 2017

Lean hog futures closed the day with gains of 47.5 to 52.5 cents in the nearby contracts, while back months were lower. The CME Lean Hog Index for 10/17 jumped $1.21 higher than the previous day at $62.21. The national base hog was up $1.02 at 63.42. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 44 cents higher at $73.32 in Thursday afternoon report. The picnic and belly were the only primals reported lower. Estimated week to date FI hog slaughter was 22,000 head fewer than last week at 1,830,000 head through Thursday, but still 72,000 larger than the same week in 2016. This morning’s Export Sales report indicated 2017 sales of just 11,442 MT for the week ending 10/12. That is a drop of 27.9% from a week ago and well below last year. Shipments came in at 21,121 MT, 21.1% above this time last year.

Dec 17 Hogs closed at $64.250, up $0.500,

Feb 18 Hogs closed at $68.475, up $0.475

Apr 18 Hogs closed at $72.425, up $0.525

Cotton

October 19, 2017

Cotton futures were mostly 9 to 32 points lower on Thursday. All upland cotton 17/18 export sales increased nearly 63.95% from the previous week but lagged last week by 25.57% at 253,182 RB. Most of the sales went to Vietnam at 61,600 RB and Bangladesh with 61,500 RB purchased. There was an additional sale of 8,000 RB for 18/19 delivery to China. Exports of upland cotton were reported at 86,125 RB. All pima sales totaled nearly 17,500 RB, 20% lower than last week. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) was updated to 59.73 cents/lb, down 71 points from the previous week. The Cotlook A index for October 17 was 15 points higher at 77.85 cents/lb.

Dec 17 Cotton closed at 67.310, down 32 points,

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 67.010, down 32 points

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 68.740, down 21 points


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