AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

June 28, 2017

Corn futures are trading UNCH to a penny higher this morning. They closed Tuesday with fractional gains in most contracts after showing gains of 4-5 cents earlier in the session. Forecasts are showing wet weather across most of the Corn Belt for this week, with warmer temperatures to follow next week. Iowa in particular should see increased soil moisture. The USDA Crop Progress report indicated that most states were matching or behind their average progress for silking. Individual state condition ratings show most of the Corn Belt higher, with NE, MN and the Dakotas all presenting lower conditions. The weekly EIA ethanol report will be released this morning at 9:30 a.m. CST.

Soybeans

June 28, 2017

Soybean futures are currently 1 to 2 cents higher after settling Tuesday mostly 2 1/4 to 4 3/4 cents in the green. July 17 soy meal was down 10 cents, with soy oil up 56 points in the front month. This week’s Crop Progress report showed that 9% of the crop was blooming as of Sunday, ahead of the average at 7% and last year’s 8%. Condition ratings in NE, IN, and most of the North were lower, with MO, IL, OH and most southern states, minus AR and LA, slightly higher. The Stats Canada report is expected to show Canola acreage at 22.2 million acres this Thursday, down from 22.39 in April. Soybean acreage is projected at 7 million acres by analysts, up from 6.96 in the April report.

Wheat

June 28, 2017

Wheat futures are mostly 1 to 2 cents higher in the SRW and HRW contracts this morning. MPLS spring wheat is up 6 to 7 cents. Wheat futures ended Tuesday with gains of 1 to 4 1/4 cents in most KC and CBT contracts. MPLS was again the strongest, as the KC-MPLS spread for the July contract widened to $2.24 1/4. Premiums for HRW wheat are running $1.68 to $1.78 above board price for 12% protein. Condition ratings for winter wheat were even with or better than the previous week in most states, with SD 13 points lower and both NE and MI down 10 points. The spring wheat crop is 36% headed, ahead of the average of 35% but well behind last year’s 52%. SD is 27% ahead of last year, with ND even, as the other states are behind their respective averages. Spring wheat condition ratings were higher only in MT, as all other states had lower conditions than the previous week. All wheat acreage in Canada is projected to be 22.7 million acres in the upcoming report, down from Stats Canada’s estimates of 23.18 million acres in April. Strategie Grains lowered their production estimate for 2017 French wheat to 35.6 MMT from 37.2 MMT due to damage from hot weather.

Cattle

June 28, 2017

Live cattle futures gave back gains from Monday and were down $1.875 to $3.25 on Turnaround Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures were also sharply lower, down $2.075 to $4.575 in the nearby contracts. The CME feeder cattle index was up 58 cents on June 26 at $146.42. Wholesale beef prices were sharply lower in the Tuesday afternoon report, with choice boxes down $4.66 at $233.91. Select was $2.40 lower, with an average of $215.26. The Ch/Se spread is now down to $18.65. Estimated FI cattle slaughter through Tuesday was 235,000 head, 4,000 above last week and 10,000 greater than last year. The showlists for the FCE auction this morning are presenting 2,554 head for sale, with 10 of the 19 lots from NE.

Lean Hogs

June 28, 2017

Lean hog futures finished Tuesday with losses of 12.5 to 72.5 cents in the front months, with back months a nickel to $1.025 higher. The CME Lean Hog Index for 6/23 was up another 45 cents to $90.62. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 96 cents in the afternoon report, with a weighted average of $102.31. All primal cuts were higher. The national base hog carcass price was 3 cents lower with a weighted average of $85.75 in the p.m. report. FI hog slaughter was estimated at 871,000 head through Tuesday, 16,000 more than the previous week and 17,000 head above last year. Ahead of Thursday’s USDA Hogs and Pigs report analysts are expecting all hog inventory on June 1 to be 3.3% larger than last June at 71.597 million head. The number of Hogs kept for breeding is expected to be 1.5% higher at 6.069 million head, while kept for marketing are projected at 65.490 million head, up 3.5% over last year.

Cotton

June 28, 2017

Cotton futures have reversed Tuesday gains and are down 50 to 100 points this morning. They were up 34 to 77 points on Tuesday, with the help of a sharply lower US dollar, down 924 points. The dollar is weaker again this morning. Overall cotton ratings dropped 4% g/e to 57%. The Brugler500 index is at 357, down 7 points from last week. The biggest loser for the week was OK, as ratings there dropped 26 points, with AL down 12. AZ ratings dropped 10 points with TX down 7. On the other side, AR was up 12 points with TN and SC 7 points higher. China sold 19,800 MT of cotton from state reserves on Tuesday, totaling 65.40% of the total 30,300 MT offered. The Cotlook A index for June 26 was 35 points higher at 82.95 cents/lb.


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