Trading Coach - Actionable Market Levels - Oct 9 2019
John Caruso of RJO Futures - InsideFutures.com - Wed Oct 09, 8:51AM CDT

Actionable Levels:

Market

Trend

Range Low

Range High

SP500

Bearish

28862985

VIX (Cash)

Bullish

14.85

2120

OIL

Bearish

51.60

56.25

GOLD

Bullish

1479

1534

10YR (Yield)

Bearish

1.481.70
Just so you know, yesterday Fed Chairman Powell unofficially announced QE4 was happening. In the meantime via repo facility operations, the Feds balance sheet has already expanded by $162B. Looks to be approx. 20.8B per month worth of asset purchases coming up starting in November 2019 thru April 2020.
In the event of this unofficial announcement of QE, Trump has elevated the trade war, blacklisting some 28 Chinese companies (largely tech companies) due too Chinese Human Rights violations, and now banning visas on Chinese officials linked to the mass Muslims detention facility. Still, there remains some optimism that the US/China can reach an interim deal basically just kicking the can down the road on the bigger issues at hand.
How we're playing this:
Weve been expecting this reaction by the Fed. This is likely the beginning of the Feds attempt to reflate asset prices via weakening the US Dollar. However, will the Fed be dovish enough remains the question. We do happen to think theyll get it right this time which will pull us out of the Growth/Inflation slowing economic back drop and into a more favorable set-up in terms of Inflation (the verdict is still out on whether Growth accels or decels in Q4). Regardless, a period of re-flation will be bullish for commodity assets (Which is why weve taken a strong interest in the LONG SIDE OF ENERGY).

Good Luck out there today! Don't forget to sign up for a 2 month trial of our trade signals and Morning Market Insights!
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Trade with the trend are words commonly echoed by professional traders. At what price does one sell in a bearish trending market and at what price does one buy in a bullish trending market? The Market Navigator is intended to provide guide posts to identify those price levels.

How to use our strategy:

Guidelines

The rules based strategy is simple.

If a market is in aBullishtrend a trader should only be looking to participate as abuyerand only at thelowend of the range.

If a market is in aBearishtrend a trader should only be looking to participate as asellerand only at thehighend of the range.

If a market is in aNeutraltrend a trader should be looking to participate as abuyeronly at thelowend of the range OR as aselleronly at thehighend of the range.

Trend

Determining how a market is currently trending depends on the time line. I typically track markets on both a monthly and weekly timeframe to identify trend bias. In my experience, studying market price, action, and behavior, Ive observed that markets that trend bullish or bearish on a 3-month timeline tend to hold that posture for an extended period of time.

With this in mind, all markets have the tendency to revert back to the mean, whether bullish or bearish trend. In other words, you get bull market dips that create buying opportunities, and bear market rips that create selling opportunities.

Range

Trading ranges are determined by an ongoing tug of war on price levels between buyers and sellers. The top end of a range is typically where buying pressure has run out of steam and the number of sellers overwhelms the market and pushes it lower. Conversely, the bottom end of a range is typically where selling pressure has run out of steam and the number of buyers overwhelms the market and pushes it higher.

Range trading with the trend enables one to participate in a market with predefined entry target levels while keeping the overall bias in sync with the market trend. My proprietary trading range levels can be viewed as support and resistance levels, however unlike traditional static support and resistance, my levels update on the open and close of the market and may be different each period depending on market volatility. The levels factor in both the medium term and near term price action.

Use these levels to help manage market swings and risk. Remember, the amount of risk that you accept is the only aspect of the market you control.Sign up for a free 2 week demo of ourRJOF PRO Trading Platformand John Caruso will include you on his daily email distribution during the trial period.

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