Gerald Grain Center -

Ag Market Commentary

Alan Brugler - Barchart - Mon Oct 12, 9:35PM UTC

Corn had a Monday pullback as the front months ended 4 to 6 cents lower. The weekly export inspections report with data from the week ending 10/8 and the crop progress reports will be delayed until tomorrow due to the Columbus Day holiday. With USDA closed, there were also no export sales announcements. National corn prevented planting (PP) was 6.177 million acres as reported on October 1, an additional 99k acres from the last report. On Friday, USDA lowered production by 178 mbu via a 0.1 bpa yield cut and lower harvested acres. USDA also noted 88.212 failed acres of 2020 corn crops. Taiwan issued an international tender for 65k MT of optional origin corn.

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.89, down 6 cents,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.96 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

May 21 Corn closed at $4.00 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents,

Jul 21 Corn closed at $4.03 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans were down 16 1/2 to 31 3/4 cents per bushel today. Soymeal futures closed the session with $9.40 to $8.10/ton losses. BO closed 81 to 85 points in the red. USDA offices were closed for Columbus Day, pushing the Crop Progress report and any potential export sales announcements to tomorrow evening. The trade is expecting it to show harvest 50-55% complete and provide the last look at condition ratings. National soybean PP was 1.476 million acres as reported on October 1, an additional 25k acres from the last report. USDA also noted 81.854 failed acres of 2020 soybean crops.

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.33 3/4, down 31 3/4 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $10.36 3/4, down 29 cents,

Mar 21 Soybeans closed at $10.25 3/4, down 22 1/2 cents,

May 21 Soybeans closed at $10.24, down 19 3/4 cents,

Dec 20 Soybean Meal closed at $354.30, down $9.40

Dec 20 Soybean Oil closed at $33.16, down $0.85

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

The Monday wheat markets ended mixed. SRW futures closed firm to fractionally higher. KC wheat stayed a nickel lower, with the front months ending 2 3/4 to 5 cents in the red. Spring wheat futures closed the session 1 3/4 to 2 1/4 cents lower. USDA offices are closed today in recognition for Columbus Day. The export inspections report, with data from the week ending 10/8, will be released tomorrow. The Crop Progress report will also be delayed until tomorrow. French soft wheat planting was reported at 6% complete as of 10/5. Despite several crop problems around the world, USDA estimates that global wheat stocks on June 1 will still be a record large 321.45 MMT.

Dec 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.94 1/4, up 1/2 cent,

Dec 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.30 1/2, down 5 cents,

Dec 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.42 3/4, down 1 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures fell back $1.07 to $1.77 on the day. As of Monday, there were still just 9 deliveries against October live cattle futures. Feeder cattle futures ended mostly in the red with 35 to 92 cent drops. Nov feeders rallied off of midday lows and ended 2 cents higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down another 54 cents to $141.28 on 10/9. Strong Friday cash trades carried over for the new week, getting an early start. USDA reported a few Monday sales at $109 in TX and WCB. USDA also mentioned some limited $107 deals for lower graded cattle. Wholesale boxed beef prices were stronger. The Chc/Sel spread is at $14.28, as Choice boxes were $0.56 stronger to $214.62 and Select boxes were $0.52 higher at $200.34. Monday’s FI cattle slaughter is estimated at 117,000 head. That is 1,000 above last Monday, and up 2k from the same Monday a year ago.

Oct 20 Cattle closed at $108.350, down $1.525,

Dec 20 Cattle closed at $110.825, down $1.775,

Feb 21 Cattle closed at $113.075, down $1.225,

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $137.300, down $0.950

Nov 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $135.550, up $0.025

Jan 21 Feeder Cattle closed at $133.650, down $0.350

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Monday hogs pulled back some following the run up last week, prices were 5 cents higher to 32 cents lower on the day. The week’s Fresh Bacon Index from CME was another $6.10 higher to $200.47 cwt. That is the strongest Fresh Bacon Index since the May rally, and the highest for this week since 2015. The CME Lean Hog Index was another 9 cents higher on 10/8 to $77.71. USDA’s National Average Afternoon Base Hog price was down 60 cents to $63.99. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was $0.94 lower on Monday afternoon at $94.31. The primal cuts were mixed. China’s Ministry of Ag reported that over the weekend government officials seized 70 illegally imported piglets, of which at least 16 had ASF. That was the first confirmed case since July 25. USDA estimates Monday’s kill at 490,000 head. That starts the week 1,000 head above LW and 3,000 head above the week prior.

Dec 20 Hogs closed at $66.625, down $0.500,

Feb 21 Hogs closed at $70.225, down $0.325

Apr 21 Hogs closed at $74.400, down $0.175

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures trading began the first day of the week with 73 to 85 point gains. Heavy rains and high winds from Hurricane Delta have damaged some of the Southeast crop, as most bolls are expected open at this point. The Crop Progress report will be delayed until Tuesday in recognition for Columbus Day. The Seam reported 10,728 bales sold on Friday at 60.17 cents/lb. The Cotlook A index stayed at 72.95 cents/lb for October 9. The AWP for cotton is 51.48 cents/lb, with an 0.52 cent LDP.

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 68.37, up 73 points,

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 69.18, up 76 points

May 21 Cotton closed at 69.93, up 81 points

Jul 21 Cotton closed at 70.46, up 85 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

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