Grains Report 01/11/19
Jack Scoville of The PRICE Futures Group - InsideFutures.com - Fri Jan 11, 12:13PM CST

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 11
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL January Jan. 14, 2019 167 Jan 10, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan. 14, 2019 40 Jan 09, 2019
SOYBEAN January Jan. 14, 2019 473 Jan 10, 2019

WHEAT
General Comments Winter Wheat markets were lower yesterday as most agricultural markets saw some selling interest from the speculators on demand concerns. World markets were firm, and US FOB prices are at or below just about all of the competition. US Wheat is cheap, but is not really getting much world demand. Ideas are that demand for US Wheat is about to improve, and it looks like the US was able to sell some Wheat to Algeria and maybe Tunisia this week. World crop reports continue to indicate less production and tightening supplies. Firm prices extend from Russia to Australia on reduced world production, although Russia still shows the potential for strong exports this year. Australian and European prices have also been relatively strong. Argentine Wheat is facing quality and yield losses after more rains hit growing areas last week. It is harvest time, so the big rains are causing damage and harvest delays.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions, although rain is likely. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Egypt bought 415,000 tons of Russian Wheat and Tunisia bought 100,000 tons of optional origin Wheat yesterday.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 511, 504, and 501 March, with resistance at 518, 524, and 530 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 496, 488, and 485 March, with resistance at 507, 511, and 517 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 563, 557, and 553 March, and resistance is at 574, 576, and 578 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher again yesterday on follow through buying tied in part to hopes for some business with China. News that the negotiators made very good progress and that China has agreed to buy more US agricultural goods provided a reason to buy. The domestic cash market also is feeling a bid, and producers are still unwilling sellers. Reports of less Brazil production for the coming year due to cheap prices also helped support the market as there will be less competition for sales into Central America and northern South America now. Weekly charts still show a down trend, and the quiet tone in the cash market is reflected in the futures market as buyers and sellers are not eager to be involved.
Overnight News: The Delta should get more precipitation this weekend, then dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal today, then colder.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1089 March. Support is at 1073, 1065, and 1052 March, with resistance at 1089, 1098, and 1106 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments:
Overnight News: Corn was lower yesterday as demand ideas for US Corn remain strong, but no new demand was confirmed. The meetings between the US and Chinese went well this week, and ideas are that China can start to buy Corn soon. However, there was nothing concrete released from the meetings, so the market fell into a buy the rumor and sell the fact mentality. The Chinese apparently have committed to buy more US agricultural goods as part of the settlement, but no one knows when the purchases can begin or how much will be bought. USDA is shut down now, so any demand news will have to wait or will come from the commercials. There has been no talk of big sales so far. Petroleum markets are showing a bottom on the charts, and that means that ethanol demand could improve soon. Corn demand for ethanol has softened in the wake of the crushing move to lower prices over the last couple of months in petroleum futures markets. Ethanol prices have also weakened and blenders no longer have a profit margin and have been cutting back on production. The Corn market seems to found increased selling interest when prices get close to the 390 March area, and has been able to find support near 370 March. Trends are currently sideways to up on the daily charts and also mostly up on the weekly charts. Bad weather is in the forecast for Brazil and Argentina. Argentine areas could get some more big rains in the short term, and these areas and southern Brazil look to stay generally wet. Central and northern Brazil should get more hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 372, 370, and 367 March, and resistance is at 381, 384, and 387 March. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 290, 308, and 309 March. Support is at 286, 284, and 282 March, and resistance is at 290, 292, and 296 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower on buy the rumor and sell the fact trading in response to word that the third day of trade negotiations with China went well. There are more talks to come, and more difficult issues to decide, but China has apparently committed to buy more US agricultural goods as part of any deal. No one knows how much or when, and the lack of detail caused some of the selling interest. South American weather is bad as it has remained too wet in Argentina and southern Brazil and too dry in western Parana and parts of Mato Grosso an Mato Grosso do Sul. These weather trends continue as forecasts call for more of the same the next week. There have been reports of losses in the early harvest areas of western Parana and Mato Grosso, but the expectations of a big Brazil crop remain. Private estimates range from about 115 million tons to about 121 million tons right now. Conab estimated the crop at just below 119 million tons, and ideas are that this estimate will work down over the next couple of months unless weather patterns change dramatically.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 900, 893, and 889 March, and resistance is at 918, 921, and 926 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 317.00, 315.00, and 314.00 March, and resistance is at 321.00, 327.00, and 334.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2790, 2760, and 2740 March, with resistance at 2850, 2870, and 2880 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower again in range trading along with Chicago price action. Commercials have plenty on hand for crushing or exporting, and overall demand is said to be light right now. News that China had approved GMO Canola was supportive. The daily charts show that futures are in a sideways to down trend. Palm Oil was lower in reaction to the MPOB reports. MPOB did not cut production as much as the trade had expected, and exports were sharply unchanged month on month. Production ideas are still dropping and are less than before and exports should be building due to reduced Indian import taxes.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 480.00, 477.00, and 474.00 March, with resistance at 483.00, 487.00, and 490.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2275 and 2450 March. Support is at 2150, 2120, and 2090 March, with resistance at 2200, 2220, and 2250 March.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Jan 11
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the week ended Jan. 6, 2019. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This week 2930.4 753.3 201.1 272.6 50.8 1045.5 362.3 338.4 6692.5
Week ago 2945.8 815.6 219.0 295.2 45.4 1090.7 355.9 331.4 6879.1
Year ago 3070.2 679.8 187.1 293.8 61.0 1298.5 253.1 87.8 6626.9
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 336.7 49.6 22.7 53.7 12.1 230.6 67.1 8.6 829.9
Week Ago 778.2 91.6 54.6 145.7 10.2 512.6 84.1 18.9 1792.2
To Date 10014.0 1605.3 1054.8 1651.4 161.4 8518.8 1650.5 261.4 27111.3
Year Ago 8083.7 1719.3 1096.6 1347.8 218.6 9241.9 1408.5 254.2 25662.7
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 271.9 45.7 0.0 45.8 0.0 217.6 36.0 5.8 666.9
Week Ago 799.5 160.1 34.7 60.2 0.1 428.0 117.6 99.6 1965.0
To Date 9997.7 1855.9 245.9 989.1 62.2 4844.9 923.6 572.1 24438.0
Year Ago 8291.9 2230.4 76.7 753.3 136.4 5345.4 940.4 429.6 22430.7
EXPORTS
This Week 213.7 63.0 11.9 42.2 1.6 63.4 120.0 30.3 607.4
Week Ago 744.4 174.4 33.4 39.6 3.4 411.7 73.1 173.2 1946.0
To Date 8194.0 1523.2 744.0 1014.6 118.2 4409.4 974.9 782.0 21319.4
Year Ago 6737.6 1669.6 742.3 818.3 177.4 4797.6 998.4 386.4 19270.1
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 65.5 13.9 4.1 20.8 1.1 220.6 4.1 21.7 380.9
Week Ago 217.4 2.0 7.6 42.2 2.8 363.2 5.2 41.5 779.8
To Date 1990.6 158.8 127.2 496.3 23.9 4054.2 95.2 551.9 8869.7
Year Ago 2278.8 361.3 113.7 561.7 24.7 4127.0 97.5 322.1 9343.1
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canary seed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

MPOB – Malaysia palm oil supply and demand data in December
Observation period : Dec
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Thursday, 10 Jan
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.78 mil tonnes, Down 3.6%
Exports – 1.44 mil tonnes, Up 4.7%
Ending Stocks – 3.14 mil tonnes, Up 4.3%
Actual as follows:
Production – 1.81 mil tonnes, Down 2.0%
Exports – 1.38 mil tonnes, Up 0.6%
Ending Stocks – 3.22 mil tonnes, Up 6.9%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.85 mil tonnes, Up 6.1%
Exports – 1.38 mil tonnes, Down 12.9%
Ending Stocks – 3.01 mil tonnes, Up 10.0%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for precipitation through this weekend, then dry. Temperatures should be near to below normal this weekend and near to above normal next week.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January 36 March 140 March 81 March 18 March Price
February 49 March 83 March 20 March
March 51 March 85 March 20 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
January -11 January
February -11 March
March 44 March -12 March-

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 10
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 467.90 up 0.50
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 500.50 dn 4.40
2 Can 487.50 dn 4.40
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 510.50 dn 4.40
2 Can 497.50 dn 4.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 11
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 530.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 540.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 547.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 567.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Jan 535.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 545.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 552.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 572.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 540.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 390.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 2,060 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 190 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.0940)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 11
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 128,504 lots, or 4.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 3,216 3,216 3,216 3,216 3,216 3,216 0 38 230
Mar-19 3,221 3,248 3,221 3,239 3,256 3,236 -20 68 2,262
May-19 3,432 3,434 3,381 3,393 3,438 3,404 -34 123,248 149,186
Jul-19 3,498 3,498 3,425 3,425 3,460 3,461 1 4 6
Sep-19 3,470 3,478 3,438 3,446 3,484 3,459 -25 4,850 16,944
Nov-19 – – – 3,506 3,531 3,506 -25 0 14
Jan-20 3,486 3,493 3,461 3,470 3,501 3,475 -26 296 2,060
Corn
Turnover: 481,006 lots, or 8.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 1,830 1,830 1,830 1,830 1,844 1,830 -14 764 3,126
Mar-19 1,838 1,843 1,836 1,837 1,840 1,840 0 14,944 25,974
May-19 1,837 1,837 1,823 1,826 1,836 1,829 -7 396,212 1,252,256
Jul-19 1,863 1,867 1,856 1,857 1,869 1,862 -7 2,308 11,996
Sep-19 1,872 1,876 1,863 1,864 1,876 1,868 -8 66,324 330,822
Nov-19 1,900 1,900 1,889 1,889 1,900 1,895 -5 454 1,148
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,362,054 lots, or 36.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 – – – 2,837 2,837 2,837 0 0 5,490
Mar-19 2,788 2,799 2,741 2,749 2,785 2,772 -13 196,622 169,522
May-19 2,669 2,673 2,625 2,628 2,673 2,641 -32 1,049,460 1,549,208
Jul-19 2,668 2,668 2,624 2,627 2,667 2,641 -26 1,460 8,462
Aug-19 2,679 2,679 2,653 2,654 2,692 2,669 -23 18 224
Sep-19 2,704 2,705 2,655 2,658 2,704 2,670 -34 113,802 356,774
Nov-19 2,711 2,711 2,672 2,674 2,716 2,684 -32 678 1,950
Dec-19 2,708 2,712 2,698 2,698 2,726 2,704 -22 14 52
Palm Oil
Turnover: 361,886 lots, or 16.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 4,390 4,498 4,370 4,370 4,372 4,378 6 158 8,482
Feb-19 – – – 4,362 4,362 4,362 0 0 28
Mar-19 4,426 4,644 4,426 4,566 4,486 4,544 58 6 14
Apr-19 – – – 4,774 4,714 4,774 60 0 18
May-19 4,636 4,648 4,610 4,634 4,666 4,628 -38 339,620 448,296
Jun-19 4,662 4,706 4,662 4,688 4,724 4,682 -42 14 58
Jul-19 – – – 4,726 4,726 4,726 0 0 26
Aug-19 – – – 4,728 4,728 4,728 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,670 4,684 4,652 4,668 4,696 4,664 -32 21,946 66,872
Oct-19 – – – 4,738 4,738 4,738 0 0 26
Nov-19 4,616 4,766 4,616 4,766 4,750 4,666 -84 78 56
Dec-19 4,704 4,758 4,688 4,688 4,738 4,742 4 64 56
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 434,906 lots, or 24.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 5,168 5,200 5,100 5,134 5,100 5,142 42 840 10,612
Mar-19 5,158 5,158 5,158 5,158 5,182 5,158 -24 2 162
May-19 5,596 5,604 5,536 5,568 5,612 5,564 -48 372,380 698,128
Jul-19 – – – 5,660 5,660 5,660 0 0 18
Aug-19 – – – 5,612 5,612 5,612 0 0 2
Sep-19 5,626 5,642 5,582 5,604 5,646 5,602 -44 61,684 164,838
Nov-19 – – – 5,706 5,706 5,706 0 0 6
Dec-19 – – – 5,702 5,702 5,702 0 0 12
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.