Are Wall Street Analysts Predicting Ulta Beauty Stock Will Climb or Sink?
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Bolingbrook, Illinois-based Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) operates as a specialty beauty retailer in the United States. With a market cap of $18.3 billion, the company offers branded and private label beauty products, including cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, skincare, bath and body products, and professional hair products.
ULTA has lagged behind the broader market over the past year and in 2025. ULTA stock prices have grown 8.5% over the past 52 weeks and have declined 5.6% on a YTD basis, compared to the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 10.1% gains over the past year and a marginal decline in 2025.
Narrowing the focus, ULTA has outperformed the SPDR S&P Retail ETF’s (XRT) 1.5% rise over the past 52 weeks, but has lagged behind XRT’s 5.1% fall in 2025.
Despite its lackluster performance over the past years, Ulta Beauty’s stock surged 13.7% in the trading session after the release of its better-than-expected Q4 results on Mar. 13. Although the company’s quarterly sales declined 1.9% year-over-year to $3.5 billion, it was primarily due to the presence of an extra week in fiscal 2023. The extra week in 2023 contributed $181.9 million to Q4 2023 revenues. Meanwhile, the company observed a solid improvement in comps and contribution from new store openings, which led to its topline beating the Street’s expectations.
Furthermore, the company experienced a slight drop in cost of sales, leading to a notable improvement in margins. Its EPS for the quarter increased 4.7% year-over-year to $8.46, which surpassed the consensus estimates by a staggering 19.2%.
For the current fiscal year, ending in January 2026, analysts expect ULTA to report a 9.2% year-over-year decrease in adjusted EPS to $23.02. The company has a mixed earnings surprise history. It has surpassed the Street’s bottom-line estimates in three of the past four quarters, while missing on one occasion.
ULTA has a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating overall. Of the 27 analysts covering the stock, opinions include 12 “Strong Buys,” two “Moderate Buys,” 12 “Holds,” and one “Strong Sell.”
This configuration has remained mostly stable in recent months.
On May 22, Canaccord Genuity analyst Susan Anderson maintained a "Buy" rating on the stock, but lowered its price target from $526 to $510.
As of writing, ULTA’s mean price target of $421.50 indicates a modest premium of 2.7% from the current market prices.
On the date of publication, Aditya Sarawgi did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.