Soybeans Resuming Rally as USDA Cuts Acreage
Soybeans are trading with futures up 15 to 16 cents at Tuesday’s midday. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price is up 15 cents at $9.67 1/2. Soymeal futures are $1/ton higher. Soy Oil futures are 39 lower. There were another 128 August soybean meal deliveries overnight, with 87 issued for soybean oil. August expires on Thursday.
This morning’s Crop Production report showed offsetting changes on the supply side, as acreage was cut a massive 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million. Yield was pegged at 53.6 bpa, which was above the trade ideas of 53 bpa coming in. Production was tallied at 4.292 bbu, a 43 mbu reduction from the July WASDE vs. an estimated 39 mbu hike coming in.
Old crop carryout was cut by 20 mbu to 330 mbu, as exports say a 15 mbu hike and crush was up 10 mbu. New crop stocks were shown 30 mbu tighter to 290, as the drop in production was offset by a drop to exports. World carryout for new crop was down 1.17 MMT to 124.9 MMT as the US number tightened things down and old crop South American output was unchanged.
Crop Progress data from NASS on Monday afternoon showed 91% of the US bean crop blooming by Sunday, with 71% setting pods, both 1% behind normal. Soybean conditions were down another 1 percentage point to 68% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index dropping back 1 point to 374. Ratings in IN, IA, and MN were up a point, with MI up 5, NE improving 3 and SD up 5. The deterioration was seen in IL, down 11, with MO slipping 1, ND down 4, OH down 3, and TN falling 32 points.
Following his Truth Social post citing he hopes China quadruples US soybean orders on Sunday night, President Trump extended the pause on the tariff increase on Chinese goods for 90 days on Monday.
Brazilian soybean exports in August are estimated at 8.8 MMT according to ANEC, which was up from the 8.15 MMT number prior and would be above the 8.04 MMT total from last year.
Aug 25 Soybeans are at $10.04 1/2, up 15 cents,
Nearby Cash is at $9.67 1/2, up 15 cents,
Sep 25 Soybeans are at $10.06 3/4, up 15 cents,
Nov 25 Soybeans are at $10.27 1/4, up 16 cents,
New Crop Cash is at $9.58 3/4, up 15 1/2 cents,
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.